(February 10, 2020) A new nationwide Square/Gallup online survey of small-business owners revealed that Michael Blumberg is the Democratic party presidential candidate the survey respondents believe could win a hypothetical match-up of small-business owners.

Small business owners support many of Trump’s policies

90% | (Percentage of small-business owners who say…) they are paying attention to the 2020 campaign
69% | (…) their business benefited from the 2017 tax act
70% | (…) they reinvested savings that resulted from the tax law in their business.
56% | (…) the economy is excellent
38% | (…) the economy is good
94% | (…) the economy is excellent or good

Other policies have less support

70% | (Percentage of the surveyed small business owners …) say the cost of healthcare has had a negative impact on their ability to hire and retain employees
50% | (…) say changes to U.S. immigration policies had a negative impact on their ability to hire and retain employees

While small business owners indicate support for Trump’s policies, the survey indicates they are closely divided in their party (or independent) affiliation.

40% | Republicans
33% | Democrats
26% | Independents

Survey says Bloomberg gives Trump the toughest challenge in a head-to-head matchups

The Square/Gallup Survey revealed the following results in match-ups between Trump and the individual Republican candidates. (The match-up pool is comprised of small business owners, not all voters.)

48% Trump vs.
52% Bloomberg

50% Trump vs.
50% Biden

50% Trump vs.
49% Pete Buttigieg

51% Trump vs
49% Klobuchar

51% Trump vs
49% Yang

52% Trump vs
48% Sanders

52% Trump vs
48% Warren

Despite the match-up survey exercise, the majority of small business owners surveyed think Trump will win

Analysis by Gallup

There are more than 30 million small businesses in the U.S., and this constituency is an important one for any presidential candidate to win over. Most small-business owners indicate they have benefited from Trump’s 2017 tax law and report that their businesses are in good financial condition today, which would seem to be a positive sign for Trump.

But while their approval of the president is high, smaller percentages support him in general-election matchups with seven potential Democratic nominees. The Democratic presidential candidate with the most crossover appeal to Republican and independent small-business owners is Bloomberg, who, like Trump, has a business background. Bloomberg also gives Trump the toughest test in the head-to-head matchups.

Source:  Square/Gallup online survey of small-business owners (February 20, 2020)
Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

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